Risk Assessment of Natural Disasters Using Fuzzy Logic System of Type 2

Abstract

Risk assessment of natural and other disasters in the Republic of Serbia is defined using special methodology. This paper presents a model of improving the existing methodology by using a new generation of fuzzy logic systems (fuzzy logic systems of type 2). This type of fuzzy logic systems is a significant improvement of the existing fuzzy logic systems of type 1. Fuzzy logic systems type 2 are based on the application of new interval fuzzy numbers that consider undetermined relative to classic fuzzy numbers in a better way. The fuzzy logic system presented in this paper translates vagueness and uncertainty, those that accompany risk assessment of natural disasters and other catastrophes, into an algorithm. This kind of algorithm makes the difference between data that are absolutely correct and those less accurate, those that clearly fit in the defined evaluation scales and those that are on the limit of values and so on. This kind of a model can help decisionmakers who conduct risk assessment of natural and other disasters since it is rather easy to use and does not require prior knowledge. Thereby, the existing methodology is used as a cornerstone in the developed model. Also, the model is significant for persons engaged in decision-making in other areas because it is a method that has not been extensively applied in science and practice, and whose development is at the beginning.