A Conceptual Grey Analysis Method for Construction Projects

Maria Mikela Chatzimichailidou; Stefanos Katsavounis; Duško Lukač

doi:10.7595/management.fon.2015.0005

Maria Mikela Chatzimichailidou Polytechnic School, Department of Civil Engineering, Democritus University of Thrace,
Stefanos Katsavounis Polytechnic School, Department of Production and Management Engineering, Democritus University of Thrace
Duško Lukač University of Applied Sciences, Rheinische Fachhochschule Köln GmbH

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7595/management.fon.2015.0005

Abstract

Concerning engineers, project management is a crucial field of research and development. Projects of high uncertainty and scale are characterized by risk, primarily related to their completion time. Thus, safe duration estimations, throughout the planning of a project, are a key objective for project managers. However, traditional linear approaches fail to include and sufficiently serve the dynamic nature of activities duration. On this ground, attention should be paid to designing and implementing methodologies that approximate the duration of the activities during the phase of planning and scheduling too. The grey analysis mathematical modeling seems to gain grounds, since it gradually becomes a well-adapted and up-to-date technique for numerous scientific sectors. This paper examines the contribution of the logic behind the aforementioned analysis, aiming to predict possible future divergences of task durations in big construction projects. Based on time observations of critical instances, a conceptual method is developed for making duration estimations and communicating deviations from the original schedule, in a way that approximations will fit reality better. The whole procedure endeavors to investigate the decrease of uncertainty, regarding project completion time and reduce, up to a scale, a possible inaccurate estimation of a project manager. The utmost effort is about exploiting the gained experience and eliminating the “hedgehog syndrome”. This is attainable by designing a reliable, easily updated, and readable information system. An enlightening example is to be found in the last section.

Author Biographies

Maria Mikela Chatzimichailidou, Polytechnic School, Department of Civil Engineering, Democritus University of Thrace,

Maria Mikela Chatzimichailidou was born on 20 February 1988 in Nicosia, Cyprus and brought up all over Greece by a military family. She has always been interested in the way things work and that is why she chose to study engineering. Safety in any mode, i.e., Time-cost safety, Safety of human life and property and System safety as a specific field of research constitute the core of her research efforts. However, the awareness of the environment in which artifacts and people (i.e., socio-technical systems) are set is a precondition for systems to be less vulnerable against any kind of risk.

Stefanos Katsavounis, Polytechnic School, Department of Production and Management Engineering, Democritus University of Thrace

Dr.Stefanos Katsavounis works as an assistant professor at Democritus University of Thrace, Xanthi, Greece. He also participates as a lecturer in the MSc Program on Construction Project Management in Aristotle’s University of Thessaloniki, School of Civil Engineering.

Duško Lukač, University of Applied Sciences, Rheinische Fachhochschule Köln GmbH

Dr.Duško Lukač is a lecturer at Rheinische Fachhochschule Köln, University of Applied Sciences in Cologne, Germany. His further responsibilities include cooperation between the Rheinische University and industial companies and for the development and use of joint modules in education. He conducts and is also involved in different R&D projects. Dr. Lukač studied in Cologne, London and Krakow and earned his degrees in the fields of engineering sciences and economy.